November 23, 2025
Updated for the week of 24–30 November 2025
By Aaron W. — HowToCaptain.com
Gold heads into the last week of November trading around $4,065/oz, stabilising above the key $4,000 handle after a sharp October correction and a choppy mid-month range.
This week, the focus shifts to U.S. PCE inflation, GDP revisions, global growth data and Chinese PMIs — all of which can easily shake XAU/USD out of its current consolidation.
Key Takeaways
- Spot gold is trading near $4,060–$4,070/oz, holding above the psychological $4,000 level after a >50% year-to-date rally and a recent correction.
- Main support zones: $4,030, $3,990 and $3,955 — a break below $3,955 opens room for a deeper pullback.
- Key resistance levels: $4,110, $4,160 and $4,220 — bulls need a clean breakout above $4,160 to regain strong momentum.
- The macro spotlight is on U.S. Core PCE, GDP (2nd estimate), consumer confidence, plus German & Canadian GDP and Chinese PMIs at the end of the week.
- Baseline view: gold stays in a volatile but overall bullish structure as long as $3,955–$3,990 holds, but U.S. data surprises could trigger sharp intraday spikes in either direction.
Market Overview: What’s Driving Gold This Week
Gold in late 2025 is still trading near record territory above $4,000/oz after a massive multi-year rally driven by:
- persistent inflation and rate-cut expectations
- central bank buying as reserves diversify away from USD
- ongoing geopolitical risk and recession fear
- strong investment flows into gold ETFs and safe-haven assets
However, after peaking above $4,380/oz in October, gold went through a deep but “healthy” correction of more than 10% as the U.S. dollar strengthened and yields spiked, pushing prices briefly below $4,000.
As we outlined in your November correction article (“Why Gold Prices Are Falling and What Comes Next”), the current phase is best understood as a cool-down inside a long-term bull market, not a full trend reversal.
Going into 24–30 November 2025, the market is in “wait-and-react” mode:
- Bulls want soft U.S. inflation and growth data → weaker USD and lower yields.
- Bears are betting on stubborn inflation, firm growth and hawkish Fed rhetoric → stronger USD, higher yields, more downside in gold.
Economic & News Calendar — 24 to 30 November 2025
Below is the real global macro calendar for 24–30 November 2025, condensed and adapted for gold traders.
Monday – 24 November 2025
- No major high-impact releases scheduled.
- Market focus: positioning ahead of Tuesday’s U.S. data — gold likely trades technical ranges.
Tuesday – 25 November 2025
- U.S. Consumer Confidence (Conference Board)
- Strong confidence → supports risk assets and USD → potentially negative for gold.
- Weak confidence → risk-off flows and softer USD → supportive for gold.
Wednesday – 26 November 2025
A heavy day for macro and the most important for XAU/USD this week:
- Australia CPI – inflation data can move AUD and broader risk sentiment.
- RBNZ Interest Rate Decision (New Zealand) – policy tone feeds into global rate expectations.
- U.S. GDP (Q3, Second Estimate) – any upward revision supports the “soft landing” narrative.
- U.S. PCE & Core PCE Price Index (October) – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge:
- Cooling PCE → supports a dovish tilt → bullish for gold.
- Hot PCE → reinforces higher for longer → bearish for gold.
- New Zealand Retail Sales – smaller impact but part of the global demand picture.
Thursday – 27 November 2025
- Thanksgiving Day in the U.S.
- U.S. markets are mostly closed; liquidity is thinner and moves can be erratic.
- Japan Tokyo CPI – an upside surprise would reinforce the narrative that global inflation is sticky, which can support gold over the medium term.
Friday – 28 November 2025
- German Retail Sales
- Swiss GDP
- German CPI (Preliminary)
- Canada GDP
These reports will give a clearer picture of global growth momentum going into December. Weak data → risk-off mood and lower yields → generally supportive for gold.
Weekend – 29–30 November 2025
- Sunday: China NBS Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMIs
- Strong PMIs → better global growth outlook, but potentially stronger commodities demand.
- Weak PMIs → risk-off tone; safe-haven flows may benefit gold.
Technical Analysis (XAU/USD — Based on ~$4,065 Spot Price)
Latest closes around $4,060–$4,070 show gold sitting in a tight consolidation band after recovering from the post-correction lows.
Key Support Areas
| Level | Why It Matters |
| $4,030 | First intraday support & prior demand zone from mid-November. |
| $3,990 | Psychological + short-term swing low; line in the sand for bulls. |
| $3,955 | Deeper correction target aligned with several technical forecasts for Nov 24–28. |
Key Resistance Areas
| Level | Significance |
| $4,110 | Weekly pivot resistance and range top from recent sessions. |
| $4,160 | Breakout trigger; above this, momentum buyers may re-enter. |
| $4,220 | Extension target if bullish trend resumes, close to early-November reaction highs. |
Bias (for 24–30 Nov):
- Bullish above $3,990 – dips into $4,030–$3,990 are potential buy zones as long as macro data doesn’t surprise hawkish.
- Bearish below $3,955 – opens room toward the October correction area sub-$3,900.
Momentum Indicators
(Indicative, based on daily timeframe readings from popular platforms — adjust levels to your own charting setup.)
RSI (Daily)
- Hovering around 50–55: neutral-bullish, plenty of room for a move in either direction.
- A break above 60 would confirm renewed upside momentum; a drop below 45 warns of deeper correction risk.
MACD
- MACD lines remain close together after the October correction, hinting at consolidation with potential energy.
- A fresh bullish crossover above the zero line would support a breakout above $4,160.
Volume
- Volume has cooled off compared with the panic sell-off in October but remains elevated versus early 2025 averages. This typically precedes a larger directional move once key data (PCE, GDP, PMIs) hits the tape.
Macro Outlook (24–30 Nov)
1. U.S. Inflation & Growth — PCE + GDP
The Core PCE Price Index is the single most important data point this week. It directly shapes:
- expectations for early-2026 rate cuts,
- the path for U.S. Treasury yields,
- and therefore the opportunity cost of holding gold.
- Cooler-than-expected PCE + soft GDP → lower yields, weaker USD → gold bullish.
- Sticky inflation + solid GDP → higher yields, stronger USD → gold bearish.
2. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
After the October correction, the dollar recovered part of its losses, putting pressure on gold.
For this week:
- If DXY breaks lower toward recent support, gold could push above $4,110–$4,160.
- If DXY strengthens on hot U.S. data, gold may retest $3,990–$3,955.
3. Bond Yields (10-Year U.S. Treasuries)
Gold still tracks real yields very closely:
- 10y yields drifting lower on dovish expectations → supports further upside in gold.
- New push higher in yields → attractive returns in safe government bonds → pressure on non-yielding assets like gold.
4. Geopolitics & Systemic Risk
The background remains fragile:
- ongoing tensions in Europe and the Middle East,
- concerns about global growth and recession risk,
- political uncertainty in several major economies.
Any sudden escalation typically sends safe-haven flows back into gold, even if short-term data is USD-supportive.
Gold Price Scenarios (24–30 November 2025)
(Indicative probability distribution — for educational/analytical purposes, not investment advice.)
Scenario 1 — Bullish Continuation (≈50% Probability)
Conditions:
- Core PCE cools or matches expectations.
- U.S. data is mixed to soft.
- Yields edge lower; DXY retreats.
Potential path:
- Gold defends $4,030–$3,990
- → breaks above $4,110
- → tests $4,160
- → extends toward $4,200–$4,220 if momentum accelerates.
Scenario 2 — Bearish Correction Resumes (≈30% Probability)
Conditions:
- PCE surprises on the upside.
- GDP revisions are strong; confidence stays firm.
- Yields and USD jump.
Potential path:
- Gold breaks below $3,990
- → retests $3,955
- → if that fails, market can revisit sub-$3,900 zones highlighted in your earlier November correction article.
Scenario 3 — Sideways Range / “Thanksgiving Drift” (≈20% Probability)
Conditions:
- Data mostly in line; no big geopolitical shock.
- Holiday liquidity in the U.S. keeps price action muted.
Potential path:
- Gold trades between $4,030–$4,110, building energy for a larger move into early December.
Trading Setups for 24–30 November 2025
⚠️ Educational only — not financial advice. Always match position size and risk to your own plan.
BUY Strategy — Dip into Support
- Entry zone: $4,030–$4,045
- Take Profit 1: $4,110
- Take Profit 2: $4,160
- Stop Loss (technical): $3,995
Logic: buying the pullback into first support while the broader structure remains bullish above $3,990.
SELL Strategy — Rejection at Resistance
- Entry zone: $4,150–$4,165
- Take Profit 1: $4,110
- Take Profit 2: $4,050
- Stop Loss: $4,195
Logic: fading an overextended move into weekly resistance if yields or USD spike on data.
Breakout BUY
- Trigger: Clear 4H close above $4,160 with rising volume.
- Targets: $4,200 → $4,220
- Invalidation: Return below $4,135–$4,140.
Breakdown SELL
- Trigger: 4H close below $3,955.
- Targets: $3,920 → $3,880 (prior correction area).
- Invalidation: Recovery back above $3,990.
FAQ
Is gold bullish during 24–30 November 2025?
Gold keeps a constructive bullish bias as long as $3,955–$3,990 holds, with upside potential toward $4,160 and possibly $4,220 if U.S. data is friendly.
What will move gold the most this week?
- U.S. Core PCE & GDP (Wednesday)
- U.S. Consumer Confidence (Tuesday)
- German & Canadian GDP + German CPI (Friday)
- Chinese PMIs (Sunday)
plus the usual mix of DXY, yields, and geopolitical headlines.
What are the key support levels for gold now?
- $4,030 – first intraday support.
- $3,990 – key short-term bull–bear line.
- $3,955 – deeper correction zone; break below would signal more downside risk.
Can gold break above $4,220 this week?
It’s possible, but it likely requires:
- a dovish read on U.S. PCE and GDP,
- a pullback in yields,
- and a softening dollar.
Without that combination, price may stay capped below $4,160–$4,220.
Author — Aaron W.
Founder of HowToCaptain.com — Market Analysis, Trading Strategies & Security Expert
Aaron delivers weekly gold forecasts that blend macro fundamentals, market psychology, and multi-timeframe technical analysis, backed by real data and live economic calendars.
Leave a Reply