Introduction: Are We Still in a Bull Run?
Every bull run eventually slows — but knowing when it’s ending can make all the difference between protecting your gains or holding through a painful correction.
As of late 2025, crypto and stock markets have shown powerful rallies, record-breaking inflows, and renewed retail excitement. But with volatility rising again, many traders are asking: is the bull run still alive, or are we topping out?
This guide breaks down how to check if the 2025 bull market is continuing or if it’s already over, using real-world data, proven technical signals, and trusted sources.
1. Define What a Bull Run Really Means
A bull run isn’t just about prices going up for a few weeks — it’s a sustained upward trend characterized by:
- Higher highs and higher lows on major timeframes
- Strong market breadth (many assets rising together)
- Consistent inflows and momentum
In crypto, bull runs often coincide with Bitcoin halving cycles, ETF approvals, and institutional adoption, but every cycle evolves differently.
👉 For a deeper understanding of crypto market cycles, see:
Coindcx: The Crypto Bull Run 2025 Explained.
2. Technical Indicators That Confirm or Deny Continuation
✅ Signs the Bull Run Is
Continuing
:
- Price structure: Higher highs/lows, holding above the 200-day moving average
- Momentum: RSI between 50–70 (not overbought yet)
- Volume: Increasing during rallies, decreasing on corrections
⚠️ Warning Signs of a Top
:
- RSI divergence (price makes new highs while RSI drops)
- Breakdown below key support levels (e.g., 100- or 200-day MA)
- Sharp volume drop or low market breadth
👉 Check the live Bitcoin chart and RSI trends here:
TradingView: Bitcoin Live Chart.
3. Institutional Flows and ETF Data
Institutional demand remains one of the strongest drivers of the 2025 bull market.
- Crypto ETFs attracted record inflows exceeding $59.5 billion as of October 2025, signaling growing institutional participation.
📊 Source: Reuters – Global Crypto ETFs Hit Record Highs - Analysts forecast continued expansion of ETF listings for altcoins and DeFi-related assets.
📈 Source: Equiti – Q4 2025 Crypto Outlook
If these inflows continue to accelerate, the bull market likely has more room to grow. However, sudden outflows or liquidity tightening could mark the start of a reversal.
4. Macro & Regulatory Factors
The macro backdrop strongly influences bull or bear phases.
Bullish Environment:
- Lower interest rates or stable inflation
- Clear crypto regulation encouraging institutional entry
- Expansion of tokenized real-world assets (RWA)
Bearish Triggers:
- Unexpected interest rate hikes
- Regulatory crackdowns (especially in the US or EU)
- Liquidity crunch in global markets
According to Equiti’s 2025 Macro Report, upcoming ETF approvals and real-world asset integration remain the strongest bullish macro drivers heading into 2026.
5. Sentiment & On-Chain Indicators (for Crypto)
Crypto sentiment often leads or lags major market moves. You can measure this through:
- Fear & Greed Index: Balanced readings (40–70) mean sustainable optimism.
→ Alternative.me Fear & Greed Index - On-Chain Data: Check active addresses, total value locked (TVL), and transaction volume.
→ DeFiLlama – Total Value Locked Dashboard
Rising on-chain activity confirms healthy adoption, while stagnation signals fading momentum.
6. Compare to Historical Patterns
While history doesn’t repeat exactly, it often rhymes. Comparing 2025 to past cycles can help you spot overextension.
| Cycle | Duration | Bitcoin Peak | % Increase from Previous Cycle | Market Top Signs |
| 2017 | 18 months | $19,700 | +1,300% | Retail euphoria, ICO mania |
| 2021 | 21 months | $69,000 | +250% | Over-leverage, NFT bubble |
| 2025 (Current) | ~17 months (so far) | $125,000+ | +80% | ETF inflows, AI narratives |
(Source: MarketWatch – Bitcoin Hits Record High Above $125,000)
If this cycle extends beyond 24 months, we may be entering a late-stage rally — where volatility rises and gains become narrower.
7. Step-by-Step Checklist to Monitor the Trend
You can track the market’s pulse weekly using this simple checklist:
| Indicator | What to Watch | Current Status (2025) |
| Price Action | Higher highs/lows, above 200-MA | ✅ Positive |
| Volume Trend | Rising on rallies | ✅ Healthy |
| ETF Flows | Record inflows | ✅ Bullish |
| Sentiment | Slight greed | ⚠️ Caution |
| Macro Conditions | Stable to slightly dovish | ✅ Supportive |
| Altcoin Breadth | Improving | ✅ Mixed |
If at least 4 out of 6 remain positive → bull run likely continues.
If 3 or more turn negative → time to prepare for a correction.
8. Practical Tips for Traders & Investors
- Set stop losses and diversify – bull markets hide risk until it’s too late.
- Take partial profits – scaling out during euphoria protects your capital.
- Watch correlations – crypto often tracks the NASDAQ and liquidity cycles.
- Use dashboards – tools like Glassnode, DeFiLlama, and TradingView help visualize data.
Final Thoughts
As of Q4 2025, the evidence points to a still-active but maturing bull run.
Institutional money, ETF inflows, and macro tailwinds remain supportive — yet momentum indicators hint that the market may soon need a cooling-off period or healthy correction before the next leg up.
The smartest approach?
Stay data-driven. Watch technicals, sentiment, and macro shifts — and always manage risk. Bull runs don’t end in a day, but they do end for those who ignore the signs.
Published: October 2025
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