Bitcoin Market Outlook 1–7 December 2025: Can Bulls Defend $80,000?  

Published: December 1, 2025 – by HowToCaptain Research

Bitcoin kicks off the first week of December under pressure. After printing an all-time high above $126,000 in October, BTC has slid roughly a third from the peak, with price on December 1 dropping briefly below $85,000 in a broad crypto sell-off. 

The move caps a brutal November, where Bitcoin lost around 16–18% and is now slightly negative year-to-date, despite the ETF-driven rally earlier in 2025. 

At the same time, macro and liquidity are everything right now:

Markets are asking: Will US jobs data and PMIs revive risk appetite, or push investors even deeper into “risk-off” mode?

This week we get US jobs, ISM PMIs, Eurozone inflation & GDP, Canada jobs, Chinese PMIs and Japan GDP – exactly the kind of mix that can move BTC hard through risk sentiment, dollar moves and ETF flows. 

TL;DR – What Bitcoin Traders Need to Know This Week

• Trend: Bitcoin is in a corrective phase after an October ATH above $126k. Price is currently hovering in the mid-$80,000s, down ~33% from the high and roughly flat to slightly negative on the year.  
• Key drivers:
  
  • Repricing of Fed rate-cut expectations
  • Risk-off mood in global equities
  • Large outflows from US spot BTC ETFs and stress around leverage/liquidity.  
• MicroStrategy “DCA floor” narrative:
  
  • MicroStrategy (now branded Strategy) holds about 650,000 BTC with an average acquisition cost around $74,400 per BTC.  
  • Many traders – including your own view – see this average purchase price as a kind of psychological floor: as long as they keep holding and buying, they don’t expect Bitcoin to stay much below this level for long.
  • This is not a guaranteed floor, but it’s a very important reference zone for market sentiment.
• Macro focus (1–7 Dec):
  
  • Mon: China PMIs, US ISM Manufacturing
  • Wed: Aus GDP, China Services PMI, Swiss CPI, US ADP jobs, US ISM Services
  • Fri: Eurozone GDP final, Canada jobs, US NFP + unemployment + wages, US Michigan sentiment
  • Sun: Japan GDP (final).  
• Big risk: A strong US jobs/wage print could further boost yields and the dollar, accelerate ETF outflows and drive BTC toward $80,000 support or even down closer to MicroStrategy’s average entry near $74k.  
• Technical zones to watch:
  
  • Support: $82,000 – $80,000 – $75,000 – $74,000 (MicroStrategy DCA area)
  • Resistance / “recovery zone”: $90,000 – $94,000 – $97,000.  

1. Big Picture: From $126k All-Time High to Deep November Hangover

2025 started as a dream year for Bitcoin:

• Spot US BTC ETFs launched and attracted billions in inflows in early 2025.
• BTC broke above $100,000 and later set an all-time high near $126,000 in October, driven by institutional flows and the “digital reserve asset” narrative.  

But the last two months flipped the script:

• October failed to deliver the usual “Uptober” strength,
• November delivered one of the worst monthly drawdowns of the year (~16–18% loss),
• and December 1 opened with another sharp sell-off, briefly sending BTC into the mid-$80k zone.  

MicroStrategy / Strategy and the “Average Price Floor”

MicroStrategy (now rebranded Strategy) is still the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin:

• ~650,000 BTC on the balance sheet, representing about 3.1% of total supply.  
• An average cost basis around $74,400 per BTC, according to recent filings and trackers.  

From a market-psychology point of view, that average entry acts like a huge anchor:

• As long as BTC trades well above ~$74k, Strategy sits on multi-billion unrealised gains (current value around $56B vs ~$48B invested at mid-$80k prices).  
• Many traders, including your own view, think:
  “As long as MicroStrategy keeps holding and averaging in, it’s hard to imagine BTC staying long-term below their DCA.”

In practice this creates a “soft floor” narrative around the $74k zone. It doesn’t mean the market can’t trade below it – but it’s a level where:

• Long-term bulls expect aggressive dip buying, and
• Bears know they are pushing against a massive, committed holder with a multi-year DCA strategy.

We’ll come back to this in the scenarios.

2. Economic Calendar That Matters for Bitcoin (1–7 December 2025)

Bitcoin trades more and more like a macro asset – sensitive to US yields, the dollar and risk sentiment. Here’s a simplified calendar of events most likely to affect BTC this week. 

Monday 1 December – PMIs and Risk Tone

• China Manufacturing PMIs
  
  • Weak → global growth worries → initial risk-off in stocks, but often supportive later if it boosts easing expectations.
• US ISM Manufacturing PMI
  
  • Below 50 = contraction → increases cut odds, medium-term supportive for crypto.
  • Strong surprise → higher yields, stronger USD → usually negative BTC short term.

Tuesday 2 December – Eurozone Inflation (Flash CPI)

• Eurozone headline & core CPI
  
  • Softer CPI = dovish ECB, which feeds the global “lower yields” story.
  • Hot CPI slightly supports EUR yields; BTC impact mainly via risk sentiment.

Wednesday 3 December – “Mini-Super Wednesday”

• Australia Q3 GDP
• China Services PMI
• Swiss CPI
• US ADP Employment (Nov)
• US ISM Services PMI

ADP + ISM Services give early clues for Friday’s NFP and can shift expectations for Fed cuts, which often spill over into BTC, especially via ETF flows. 

Thursday 4 December – Eurozone Retail Sales

• Secondary for BTC, but weak data supports the global slowdown + easing narrative.

Friday 5 December – The Main Event: US & Canada Jobs

• Canada Employment & Unemployment
• US Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
• US Michigan Consumer Sentiment  

For Bitcoin, this is the key macro block:

• Soft NFP + cool wages + higher unemployment
  → more cut odds, lower yields, softer USD → supportive for BTC, especially if ETF outflows calm down.
• Hot NFP + strong wages
  → higher yields, stronger USD → risk-off, more pressure on BTC and crypto stocks.

Sunday 7 December – Japan GDP (Final)

Mostly relevant for FX and Asian equities; BTC impact is usually limited unless the data is a big shock.

3. Technical Picture: BTC in a Pullback, $80k and $74k as Key Lines in the Sand

(Levels approximate, based on BTC trading in the mid-$80,000s after the December 1 sell-off.) 

Daily Chart View

• Long-term trend: Still bullish – BTC is far above prior cycle highs and 2024 lows.  
• Short-term structure: Clearly corrective after the October peak, with a sequence of lower highs since early November.

Major Daily Levels

• Resistance / recovery zones:
  
  • $90,000: round number + recent range ceiling.
  • $93,900–$97,100: “confirmation band” flagged by multiple technical outlooks – reclaiming this suggests a more constructive December.  
  • $100,000: big psychological level and previous support.
• Support levels:
  
  • $82,000–$85,000: current intraday support area after the latest dump.
  • $80,000: widely watched structural support – clean break brings risk of acceleration.
  • $75,000–$74,000: deeper support zone aligning roughly with MicroStrategy’s average cost (~$74.4k), and prior consolidation.  

That $74k–$75k band is where the “MicroStrategy DCA floor” narrative becomes very relevant: many bulls expect aggressive defense around a level where the largest corporate holder still sits on gains.

A daily close back above $90k would be the first constructive sign; a close above $94–97k would strongly suggest the correction is maturing. A daily close below $80k opens the door toward that $75k–$74k DCA zone, and potentially below if macro/liquidity shocks intensify.

4H Chart View

On the 4-hour chart, BTC is:

• Trading below the prior range around $90–92k,
• Printing lower highs / lower lows since mid-November,
• Seeing intraday bounces sold near $90k.

Intraday traders will focus on:

• Reactions around $82–85k and $80k, and
• Any reclaim of $90k into Wednesday or Friday data releases.

4. Momentum & Sentiment Indicators

(Indicative picture heading into the week.)

• RSI (Daily):
  
  • Around the 40–50 area – typical for a correction in a long-term uptrend, not a confirmed bear market.
• Moving Averages:
  
  • Price has reconnected with key MAs after staying extended during the ETF rally.
  • On higher timeframes BTC still trades above long-term MAs, which supports the idea of a secular bull market with a deep pullback.  
• Sentiment:
  
  • Newsflow is dominated by ETF outflows, pressure on Strategy stock, and worries about debt and dividends.  
  • At the same time, history shows BTC often recovers strongly after oversold December periods, so some dip-buyers are already eyeing the $80–75k region.

Overall, momentum is fragile and skewed lower, but there are well-defined zones (especially near Strategy’s DCA) where long-term bulls are likely to become very active.

5. Fundamental Themes to Watch This Week

5.1 Fed Cuts vs. “Higher for Longer”

• Earlier in 2025, BTC moon-rallied on expectations of aggressive Fed cuts and huge ETF inflows.  
• Recently, those expectations were repriced lower, contributing to risk-off flows and making every bad macro print painful for BTC.  

This week’s ADP, ISM and NFP cluster can either:

• Confirm the slowdown → support BTC via lower yields, or
• Surprise hawkish → hurt BTC via stronger USD and postponed cuts.

5.2 ETF Flows & Institutional Positioning

• US spot BTC ETFs saw large net outflows in November (billions of dollars), reversing part of early-year enthusiasm.
• If macro stabilises and outflows slow, BTC can breathe and grind higher.
• If outflows accelerate on a macro shock, there’s risk of cascading liquidity gaps below $80k.

5.3 MicroStrategy / Strategy, DCA and the “Corporate Floor”

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) is at the centre of a crucial narrative:

• They now hold about 650,000 BTC, bought for roughly $48.38B, at an average cost around $74,400 per coin.  
• At current mid-$80k spot prices, they still show multi-billion unrealised gains (around $7–8B).  

From your perspective – and many traders agree – this implies:

As long as Strategy continues to hold and DCA into BTC, it’s unlikely (in your view) that the market will stay much below their average cost for long, because a huge long-term buyer is still in profit and has every incentive to defend the asset.

This creates a psychological “floor zone” around $74k:

• Bulls see dips toward or slightly below this area as long-term opportunities.
• Bears know that a sustained break well below Strategy’s DCA would likely require a serious macro shock or signs that Strategy itself might need to sell or de-risk.

Important nuance: recent reports mention that Strategy has outlined potential sell triggers tied to their mNAV and liquidity (for example, if mNAV drops below certain thresholds or funding costs spike), which shows that even they are not absolutely “never sellers.” 

So the DCA level is powerful as a narrative and a reference, but not a guaranteed floor – it’s a zone where probability of strong reaction is high, not a magic level where BTC must bounce.

5.4 Liquidity, Leverage & “Flush Risk”

• Derivatives and on-chain data show thin order books and elevated leverage, making stop cascades more likely in both directions.
• A big macro surprise (especially NFP) could easily generate $5–10k intraday swings, even if price later returns to the same level.

6. Bitcoin Price Scenarios for 1–7 December 2025

Educational scenarios only – not financial advice.

Scenario 1 – Base Case (~45%): Choppy Consolidation Above $80k

• Macro data is mixed, nothing extreme.
• ETF outflows remain negative but less aggressive than in November.
• BTC holds $80–82k, tests $90k, but fails to break and close decisively above it.

Likely range: roughly $82,000–$92,000, with traders watching lower wicks toward $80k as potential accumulation, especially if the Strategy DCA narrative remains strong. 

Scenario 2 – Bull Case (~30%): Recovery Toward $94–97k

• US data leans soft (especially wages & NFP), supporting lower-yield expectations.
• Risk appetite improves, ETF outflows slow or flip to small inflows.
• BTC defends $82–85k, reclaims $90k, and tests the $93,900–$97,100 band.  

If BTC can break and hold above this zone, December could shift toward a more positive recovery, with $100k back on the table.

Scenario 3 – Bear Case (~25%): Break of $80k and Flush Toward the DCA Zone

• US data surprises strong → yields and USD jump.
• Risk assets sell off, ETF outflows accelerate, leverage unwinds.
• BTC loses $80k on a daily close, which can trigger a sell-off into the $75k–$74k zone, where Strategy’s DCA sits, and potentially briefly below in a liquidation cascade.  

In your view, and in the view of many bulls, this is where the “MicroStrategy floor” becomes very attractive for long-term DCA – but the market could still overshoot temporarily if panic, forced liquidations or a Strategy-related headline hits.

7. Example Trading Plans for BTC Traders

Not signals – templates to adapt to your own rules and risk.

7.1 “Buy the Dip” in a Long-Term Bull Market

• Bias: Long-term bullish, short-term cautious, as long as $80k and especially $74k hold on a weekly basis.
• Idea:
  
  1. Watch for entries near $82–85k or deeper toward $80k, with clear rejection wicks / higher lows on 4H.
  2. Treat the $75–$74k DCA area as “last stronghold” – many long-term bulls will be interested there, but you still manage risk.
  3. Targets: $90k → $94k → $97k.
  4. Invalidation: confirmed daily/weekly close well below $74k with worsening macro and accelerating ETF outflows.

7.2 Range Trading Between Support and $90k

• Bias: Neutral if BTC is stuck between $82–90k with no catalyst.
• Idea:
  
  • Buy $82–84k with stops under $80k, aiming $88–90k.
  • Sell $89–90k with stops above $92k, aiming back $84–86k.

Turn this off during high-impact news windows (ADP, ISM Services, NFP).

7.3 Breakout / Breakdown Strategy Around NFP

• Bullish breakout:
  
  • Wait for NFP reaction; if BTC closes 4H above $92–94k with strong volume, look for a retest of this zone and target $97k and $100k.
• Bearish breakdown:
  
  • Wait for a clean 4H close below $80k and failed reclaim.
  • Short bounces toward $80k–82k with targets $76k → $74k.

Always keep your max % risk per trade fixed, regardless of how “sure” a setup feels.

8. Risk Management Checklist for This Week in BTC

Before trading BTC into this busy week, ask yourself:

1. Event awareness
   
   • Do I know the exact times for ADP, ISM, NFP and other key data in my local time?
3. Leverage
   
   • Is my position size small enough that a $5–10k move against me won’t blow up my account?
5. Liquidity risk
   
   • Am I comfortable with slippage, gaps and wicks around macro releases?
7. Plan discipline
   
   • Do I have entry, stop, take-profit and invalidation defined before entering?
9. Psychology
   
   • What’s my rule after a big loss or big win? How do I avoid revenge trading or overconfidence?

9. Quick FAQ – Bitcoin Trading 1–7 December 2025

Is Bitcoin still in a bull market?

Structurally yes: BTC is still far above prior cycle highs and earlier-year lows, but short-term it’s in a deep correction roughly one-third below its October ATH. 

What is MicroStrategy’s average purchase price, and why does it matter?

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has accumulated around 650,000 BTC at an average acquisition cost of roughly $74,400 per coin. 

Many traders, like you, see this as a key reference level – they believe BTC is unlikely to stay much below that price for long while Strategy keeps holding and DCA-ing. However, it is not a guaranteed floor; market shocks can still push price below it, at least temporarily.

What is the single most important event for BTC this week?

Almost certainly US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) + wages + unemployment on Friday, because they directly impact yields, the dollar, risk appetite and ETF flows.

Can Bitcoin bounce strongly even after a brutal November?

Yes. Historically, BTC has often seen sharp reversals after deep corrections inside bull markets – especially when macro momentum flips back toward easier policy. But this time, ETF flows and corporate positioning add extra complexity, so risk management is essential.