The 3 December session delivered quiet price action in the dollar, orderly profit-taking in gold, a sharp bounce in Bitcoin after a washout, and a solid recovery in US equities as traders leaned again into the Fed-cut story and the classic “Santa Claus rally” narrative.
Under the surface, the market is still in “data-waiting mode”:
everyone is watching delayed Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and the upcoming Core PCE release, while also reacting to chatter that Kevin Hassett could be the next Fed Chair – a prospect investors see as dollar-negative.
TL;DR – What Moved Markets Today
- Dollar: The USD drifted sideways near recent lows, lacking new catalysts. Sentiment is fragile, and talk about Kevin Hassett as a potential next Fed Chair is seen as dovish, slightly weighing on the greenback.
- Gold: After tagging a six-week high, gold saw mild profit-taking and a pause, with some bearish divergence on momentum indicators – but the bigger picture still looks constructive, especially into this week’s US inflation data.
- Bitcoin: BTC/USD bounced back above $90,000 after a leveraged flush, helped by positive signals from the SEC on “innovation exemptions” and Vanguard enabling crypto ETF trading. Trend is improved vs. yesterday, but still fragile while macro catalysts are soft.
- Equities: US stocks recovered from Monday’s risk-off tone. Futures are now pricing roughly an 87% probability of a 25 bps Fed cut in December, with seasonal optimism feeding hopes of a Santa rally, even as everyone knows volatility can reignite around data or headlines.
1. Dollar Drifts Near Lows – Waiting for Real Catalysts
The US dollar index essentially marked time today:
- No big data → no strong directional impulse.
- Sentiment indicators remain soft, reflecting caution on growth and policy.
- Speculation around Kevin Hassett as a possible future Fed Chair is interpreted as more dovish / growth-friendly, adding to the idea that USD upside is capped for now.
On our intraday charts, the dollar:
- Held just above recent lows,
- Failed to generate a convincing bounce,
- And traded in a tight, choppy range during both the European and US sessions.
Key takeaway:
This is classic “coiling ahead of data”: traders are not willing to push the dollar strongly in either direction until they see Core PCE and the rescheduled NFP print.
2. Gold: Consolidation After a Six-Week High
Gold had a two-part day:
- Recently hit a six-week high, attracting late buyers and breakout chasers.
- Today, we saw orderly profit-taking and a modest pullback.
On the technical side:
- Momentum indicators started to show bearish divergence (price making new local highs while RSI / MACD were not confirming).
- Price retraced slightly but stayed comfortably above key support, which keeps the medium-term uptrend intact.
- Volume on the dip looked more like position trimming rather than aggressive selling.
Why the structure still looks constructive:
- The macro backdrop is still dominated by expectations of lower real yields over time.
- Core PCE later this week is the next big volatility trigger for XAU/USD.
- As long as gold holds above its recent breakout zone, this kind of sideways digestion is typical after a strong leg higher.
For traders: today’s action looked more like a healthy pause than a reversal. The real test will come when inflation data hits and we see whether the market wants to buy the dip or sell the news.
3. Bitcoin: Bounce Above $90,000 After a Leveraged Flush
Bitcoin had the most dramatic story of the day.
After a leveraged selloff (liquidations + thin order books), BTC/USD:
- Found demand and rebounded back above $90,000,
- Suggesting that the worst of the immediate forced selling may be behind us (for now),
- But the short-term trend is still fragile, and sentiment remains cautious.
Two supportive headlines helped stabilize the mood:
- The SEC hinting at possible “innovation exemptions” for crypto – interpreted as slightly more constructive regulation.
- Vanguard stepping into the game by enabling crypto ETF trading, which is read as more mainstream acceptance and access for traditional investors.
From a price-action perspective, today’s move looked like:
- A classic post-liquidation bounce,
- With high intraday volatility,
- And a strong reaction once stops and leveraged longs were flushed out.
Key nuance:
Macro catalysts are still weak – there is no big new fundamental story yet. So while the bounce above $90k is encouraging, BTC will likely keep reacting to global risk sentiment and liquidity conditions, not just crypto-specific news.
4. Equities: Recovery on Fed-Cut Hopes and Santa Rally Narratives
US equities stabilized and pushed higher after Monday’s risk-off move.
The main drivers:
- Fed-cut expectations: markets are now pricing about an 87% chance of a 25 bps rate cut in December, which gives a supportive floor to equities.
- Seasonality: we’re in the traditional “Santa Claus rally” window, and a lot of positioning is built around the idea that year-end flows + dovish policy = equity strength.
- Mood shift: with no fresh negative headlines, investors had the green light to fade Monday’s fear.
At the same time:
- Volatility remains a real risk – any surprise in US data, geopolitics or Fed communication can snap this optimism quickly.
- The market is clearly data-dependent, so every uptick in uncertainty (jobs, inflation, Fed appointments) can trigger fast rotations between sectors and styles.
5. Short-Term Scenarios for the Next Sessions
Not financial advice – these are scenarios you can use as a mental framework.
Scenario A – “Calm Before the Data Storm”
- Dollar keeps drifting in a tight range near lows.
- Gold continues to consolidate, holding above recent breakout levels.
- BTC trades mostly between $90k and nearby resistance, with volatility but no new trend.
- Equities grind higher slowly as Fed-cut pricing stays intact.
What could support this:
No big surprises in incoming headlines, and the market continues to treat NFP / PCE as the real decision points.
Scenario B – Risk-On Pop
- Any dovish hint (weaker sentiment data, mild inflation, supportive Fed rhetoric) could:
- Push the dollar lower,
- Send equities higher,
- Encourage dip-buying in gold,
- And give Bitcoin the fuel to build on today’s bounce.
This would look like the early stages of a proper Santa rally, with crypto as beta on that theme.
Scenario C – Risk-Off Reset
- A hawkish surprise (e.g., very strong data, more aggressive Fed tone, messy political headline) could:
- Trigger a dollar rebound,
- Hit equities again,
- Push gold lower short-term as traders de-risk,
- And cause another wave of liquidations in BTC if leverage hasn’t been fully cleared.
In this scenario, today’s Bitcoin bounce would be seen in hindsight as a temporary relief rally inside a deeper correction.
6. Practical Takeaways for Traders
- Respect the calendar
- We are between major events (Core PCE, delayed NFP, Fed appointment rumours). Volatility can spike out of nowhere when those hit.
- Don’t over-interpret low-volume moves
- Today’s dollar drift and gold consolidation are classic “no-catalyst” patterns – strong conviction signals usually appear after the big data, not before.
- For BTC, separate “headline sugar” from trend
- SEC / Vanguard headlines are positive, but the structural trend still depends on liquidity, risk appetite and the macro rate path.
- Equities are leaning bullish – but with an escape plan
- Markets love the 87% cut probability + Santa story, but you still need a plan for the opposite scenario in case data flips the narrative.
7. Risk Management Checklist (Going Into the Next 24–48 Hours)
Before adding risk after today’s moves, ask yourself:
- Do I know exactly when Core PCE and the new NFP date/time are in my timezone?
- Am I trading smaller size than usual around news weeks, or still using the same leverage?
- If Bitcoin suddenly moves $5,000–$7,000 in 15 minutes, what happens to my account?
- For gold: do I have clear levels where my “consolidation” idea is invalidated?
- For equities: am I relying only on the “Santa rally” narrative, or do I have a stop / hedge plan?
FAQ – 3 December 2025 Session
Why is the dollar not moving much if sentiment is fragile?
Because the market already priced in a lot of bad news and is now waiting for fresh catalysts (PCE, NFP, Fed appointments). Without new information, big players avoid making huge directional bets.
Does today’s gold pullback mean the top is in?
Not necessarily. After a six-week high, some profit-taking and bearish divergence are normal. The structure remains constructive as long as key support holds and real yields don’t spike aggressively.
Is the Bitcoin bounce above $90k the start of a new uptrend?
It’s more clearly a post-liquidation rebound for now. If BTC can hold above $90k and build higher lows into the next macro events, then yes – it can evolve into a new up-leg. But the short-term trend is still fragile.
Why are equities up if macro is weak?
Because markets care as much about policy as about growth. Weaker data can mean more cuts, lower yields and cheaper liquidity, which is supportive for risk assets – especially into year-end, when seasonal patterns are in play.
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