Updated for the week of 17–23 November 2025
By Aaron W. — HowToCaptain.com
Gold begins the week trading near $4,080/oz, holding firmly above the psychological $4,000 level while the market prepares for a dense economic calendar and crucial Fed signals. Expect significant volatility as the market reacts to U.S. data, bond yields, and geopolitical risk.
Key Takeaways
- Gold is currently trading around $4,080/oz, showing neutral–bullish structure.
- Major support is at $4,020 and $3,980; key resistance stands at $4,120 and $4,165.
- A breakout above $4,165 could push gold toward $4,200–$4,220.
- A break below $3,980 risks a deeper pullback toward $3,945.
- This week is packed with market-moving news: Canada CPI, U.S. Industrial Production, FOMC minutes, Jobless Claims, and U.K. Retail Sales.
Market Overview: What’s Driving Gold This Week
Gold continues to trade above $4,000 as investors seek protection against:
- moderating inflation
- slowing global economic activity
- safe-haven demand
- ongoing central-bank buying
However, strong U.S. yields and a firm U.S. dollar limit upside potential.
The week of 17–23 November 2025 is loaded with macro events that will influence gold’s direction.
Economic & News Calendar — 17 to 23 November 2025
Below is the real global economic calendar for this exact week, merged into your gold analysis.
📅 Monday – 17 November 2025
- Canada CPI (October) — high impact on USD/CAD & global inflation sentiment.
- U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index (Nov) — early insight into U.S. economic momentum.
📅 Tuesday – 18 November 2025
- U.S. Import & Export Prices (Oct)
- U.S. Industrial Production (Oct)
- U.S. Capacity Utilization (Oct)
- ADP Employment (Nov) — employment heat indicator.
📅 Wednesday – 19 November 2025
- U.S. Building Permits & Housing Starts (Oct)
- U.K. CPI Final (Oct)
- Eurozone CPI Final (Oct)
- Eurozone Current Account (Sep)
📅 Thursday – 20 November 2025
- U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
- U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
- U.S. Existing Home Sales (Oct)
- Asia regional inflation releases
📅 Friday – 21 November 2025
- U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final Nov)
- U.K. Retail Sales (Oct)
Additional Context
Because of the recent U.S. government shutdown, some data releases have been delayed, adding uncertainty and potential for strong market reactions to updated figures.
Technical Analysis (XAU/USD — Based on $4,080 Spot Price)
Key Support Areas
| Level | Why It Matters |
|---|---|
| $4,020 | Primary intraday support + liquidity zone |
| $3,980 | Weekly support + key liquidity pocket |
| $3,945 | Daily demand area + trendline retest |
Key Resistance Areas
| Level | Significance |
|---|---|
| $4,120 | Weekly pivot resistance |
| $4,165 | Bullish breakout trigger |
| $4,220 | Extension target if momentum continues |
🎯 Bias: Bullish above $4,020
🔻 Bearish below $3,980
Momentum Indicators
RSI (Daily):
52
Showing mild bullishness with room to climb.
MACD:
Shows a strengthening bullish crossover, indicating upward pressure building.
Volume:
Increasing after two slow weeks → strong move expected this week.
Macro Outlook (17–23 Nov)
1. Federal Reserve (FOMC) Minutes
The most important event of the week. Markets will look for:
- tone on inflation
- outlook for 2026 rate cuts
- growth concerns
- liquidity guidance
➡️ Dovish = Gold bullish
➡️ Hawkish = Gold bearish
2. U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
DXY remains between 104.5–105.2.
- Below 103.80 → Gold may rally hard
- Above 105.50 → Gold may fall back toward $3,980
3. Bond Yields (10-Year)
The strongest driver of gold.
📌 Below 4.25% → Bullish for gold
📌 Above 4.35% → Bearish pressure returns
4. Geopolitical Risk
Key areas affecting gold:
- Middle East & oil supply risks
- Russian/European tensions
- Global recession concerns
Any escalation → safe-haven flows into gold.
Gold Price Prediction (17–23 Nov 2025)
Scenario 1 — Bullish Outlook (50% Probability)
Gold protects $4,020
→ breaks $4,120
→ tests $4,165
→ targets $4,200–$4,220
Driven by:
- lower yields
- softer economic data
- dovish Fed language
Scenario 2 — Bearish Correction (30% Probability)
Gold breaks $4,020
→ retests $3,980
→ may extend down to $3,945
Triggers:
- strong U.S. data
- rising yields
- stronger USD
Scenario 3 — Sideways Consolidation (20% Probability)
Gold trades between $4,020–$4,120, waiting for FOMC clarity.
Trading Setups for 17–23 November 2025
BUY Strategy (Retracement Zone)
- Entry: $4,020–$4,035
- TP1: $4,120
- TP2: $4,165
- SL: $3,995
SELL Strategy (Rejection Zone)
- Entry: $4,155–$4,165
- TP1: $4,120
- TP2: $4,050
- SL: $4,185
Breakout BUY
- Buy above $4,165 → target $4,200–$4,220
Breakdown SELL
- Sell below $3,980 → target $3,945
FAQ
Is gold bullish during 17–23 November 2025?
Yes, gold is bullish above $4,020 with potential to reach $4,165 and $4,200.
What will move gold this week?
FOMC minutes, jobless claims, U.S. inflation data, DXY, and yields.
What is the main support for gold?
$4,020 is the most important support this week.
Can gold reach $4,220 this week?
Yes, if U.S. yields drop and dollar weakens.
Author — Aaron W.
Founder of HowToCaptain.com — Market Analysis, Trading Strategies & Security Expert
Aaron delivers weekly gold forecasts based on macroeconomic data, market psychology, and multi-timeframe technical analysis.
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